Agricultural Zoning of Sugarcane in Climate Change Scenarios

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.9771/cp.v18i1.60110

Keywords:

Climate variability, Climate modeling, Mato Grosso do Sul, Air temperature, CMIP6.

Abstract

The sugarcane culture, crucial for the economy of Mato Grosso do Sul, faces significant challenges due to climatic factors such as solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration. To understand and mitigate these vulnerabilities, Climate Risk Zoning is used, evaluating future scenarios based on CMIP6. Studies indicate an increase in the annual average temperature, varying from 4.0% in the most optimistic scenario to 28.4% in the most pessimistic by 2100, in addition to a negative impact on the water deficit, making the state more arid. Projections point to a drastic reduction in suitable areas for cultivation, with up to 83.28% by 2060 and the possibility of complete inviability by the end of the century. In light of these challenges, the necessity of adopting adaptive and sustainable agricultural practices is emphasized to ensure the future viability of sugarcane production in the region.

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Author Biographies

Guilherme Botega Torsoni, Instituto Federal de Educação Ciência e Tecnologia do Mato Grosso do Sul

PhD in Materials Science from the São Paulo State University Júlio de Mesquita Filho in 2012.

Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido , Instituto Federal do Sul de Minas

PhD Professor at the Federal Institute of Education of the South of Minas (IFSULDEMINAS) - Muzambinho Campus in the area of Agricultural Engineering/Agrometeorology/Agricultural Climatology. CNPq Research Productivity Scholarship. Responsible for the Agrometeorology Laboratory at IFSULDEMINAS Campus Muzambinho. Doctor and Master in Agrometeorology/Agricultural Climatology - UNESP Jaboticabal. Agricultural Engineer and Agricultural Technician from the Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Southern Minas - Campus Muzambinho, MG. Degree in Biology from Claretiano - BATATAIS/SP (2019). Associate Editor of the Brazilian Meteorology Magazine (RBMET). He has experience in publishing articles in international magazines and in Technological Development, mainly in the development and registration of software and applications at INPI. Developer of the Software SYSWAB-System for Water Balance (INPI: BR512014001349-9), for managing agrometeorological stations, currently implemented at the Guaxupé-COOXUPÉ Regional Coffee Growers Cooperative and Developer of the IF-CLIMA mobile application for climate monitoring currently implemented at COPASUL - South Matogrossense Cooperative. He collaborates as a reviewer in journals indexed nationally and internationally. He is an ad-hoc consultant on research projects and public competition boards. He has participated in master's and doctorate committees, course completion work and scientific initiation salons. He works as a researcher/teacher in the guidance and co-supervision of scientific initiation students for both PIBIC/CNPq scholarship holders and students who fulfill mandatory intern credits (IFMS/PIBIC-Jr) and postgraduate studies at the Master's and Doctorate level. He has projects approved by FAPESP, FUNDECT, FAPEMIG, SETEC-MEC, IFES and CNPq. He was a professor/collaborator of the master's degree at UNIFENAS. As an undergraduate, he teaches classes in the following subjects: Agrometeorology; Topography; Agricultural Experimentation. In Lato sensu he teaches the subject "Scientific Research Methodology III" in the Lato sensu POSTGRADUATE IN BIOETHICS. In Stricto sensu he is a permanent professor of the Masters in Food Science and Technology at IFSULDEMINAS. Coffee producer in the south of Minas Gerais. .

Viviane Lima Catelan Moreira, Instituto Federal de Educação Ciência e Tecnologia do Mato Grosso do Sul

Specialist in Health Education and Communication in Agricultural Defense from the Federal Institute of Mato Grosso do Sul in 2023.

João Antônio Lorençone, Instituto Federal de Educação Ciência e Tecnologia do Mato Grosso do Sul

Agricultural technician and undergraduate in Agricultural Engineering at the Federal Institute of Mato Grosso do Sul in 2019.

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Published

2025-01-01

How to Cite

Torsoni, G. B. ., Aparecido , L. E. de O., Moreira, V. L. C., & Lorençone, J. A. . (2025). Agricultural Zoning of Sugarcane in Climate Change Scenarios. Cadernos De Prospecção, 18(1), 201–217. https://doi.org/10.9771/cp.v18i1.60110

Issue

Vol. 18 No. 1 (2025)

Section

Prospecções Tecnológicas de Assuntos Específicos

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